VAN WITH MY BOOKS
The editorial (in Mexico) have published 2 books on tourism: Hospitality and Tourism analysis sustainable. To view this link: http://www.etrillas.com.mx
In the form put my name (Alfredo Ascanio) and the books are quoted in Mexican pesos (11 pesos per dollar).
To enter the Virtual Store TRILLAS if you want to buy my books then you have to do above where it says CLICK MY BOOKS and link that will appear Editorial Mexicana, and in the form you put my name to see the three books I have there and if you are interested in the book devoted to the evaluation of hotel investments, you can buy remembering that in Mexico they put in Mexican pesos, but more or less to send to say Argentina would cost 30 U.S. dollars to the cost of shipping.
Sunday, March 27, 2011
Saturday, March 26, 2011
Same Birthday Love Match
A company has two projects: A and B. It ecime that Project B can be riskier than Project A. Cash flows from both projects are:
Year Project A Project B
0 to 100 -200
January 1980 10 2100 50
3110100 4150150
5150200 6150300
7 --- 500
The risk-free discount rate is 12%, but for the project to a risk of 2% or 12% + 2% = 14%
For Project B is greater risk estimated at 8%, or 12% + 8% = 20%.
A project NPV discounted at 14% rate is equal to:
- 100 + 70.17 + 76.94 + 74.25 + 88.81 + 76.79 + 68.33 = - 100 + 425 , 29 = + 355.3
Project B NPV discounted at the rate of 20% is equal to:
- 200 + 8.33 + 34.72 + 57.87 + 72.33 + 80.37 + 100 46 + 139.54 = - 200 + 493.62 = +293,62
is preferred investment in the project A, it has a higher risk-adjusted NPV.
Monterola Constration
PERFORMANCE WITH INFLATION RISK AND PAYMENT OF IMPUETSOS
I also have wondered what influence INFLATION TAX EXEMPT and the selection of investments. Well, it is not difficult but involves the following procedure:
(1) assume a payout equal to 14 monetary units, and that in the absence of inflation and taxes, generates two net cash flows in year 1 and 2 and
YEAR 1
Costs Income + 12 - 2 10 Net cash
Year 2 Costs
Income + 12 - 2 10 Net cash
Assume a tax rate equal to 36 % But taking into account that the investment is 14 then 14 / 2 = 7 and assume that the average inflation rate is 13% for revenues and 12% for expenses. With all these damages the net cash flows in nominal terms before tax would be: Year 1
Income 12 (1,13) = 13.56 Costs
-2 (1.12) = - 2.24
Flow Net value = 11.32
Revenue Year 2 12 (1.13), to the 2 = 15.32 -2
Costs (1.12), to the 2 = - 2.53 Net cash
nominal = 12 , 79
tax payments for Year 1:
0.36 (11.32 to 7) = 1.55
tax payments for the Year 2:
0.36 (12.79 - 7) = 2.08
The nominal net cash flows and after tax are: Year 1
(11.32 to 1.55) = 9.77
Year 2 (12.79 to 2.08) = 10.71
But cash flow after tax and real values \u200b\u200bare: Year 2
9.77 / 1.12 = 8 Year 1 72
10.71 / (1.12) raised to the 2
10.71 / 1.2544 = 8.53
then the Net Present Value (NPV) after tax in real terms (net with 10%) would be as follows:
NPV = - 14 + 8.72 / 1.10 + 8.53 / (1.10) raised to the 2 = - 14 + 7.93 + 7.04 = 0.97
As the NPV is positive and greater than zero: the project is aceptable.Aunque is in a dangerous limit .
(1) assume a payout equal to 14 monetary units, and that in the absence of inflation and taxes, generates two net cash flows in year 1 and 2 and
YEAR 1
Costs Income + 12 - 2 10 Net cash
Year 2 Costs
Income + 12 - 2 10 Net cash
Assume a tax rate equal to 36 % But taking into account that the investment is 14 then 14 / 2 = 7 and assume that the average inflation rate is 13% for revenues and 12% for expenses. With all these damages the net cash flows in nominal terms before tax would be: Year 1
Income 12 (1,13) = 13.56 Costs
-2 (1.12) = - 2.24
Flow Net value = 11.32
Revenue Year 2 12 (1.13), to the 2 = 15.32 -2
Costs (1.12), to the 2 = - 2.53 Net cash
nominal = 12 , 79
tax payments for Year 1:
0.36 (11.32 to 7) = 1.55
tax payments for the Year 2:
0.36 (12.79 - 7) = 2.08
The nominal net cash flows and after tax are: Year 1
(11.32 to 1.55) = 9.77
Year 2 (12.79 to 2.08) = 10.71
But cash flow after tax and real values \u200b\u200bare: Year 2
9.77 / 1.12 = 8 Year 1 72
10.71 / (1.12) raised to the 2
10.71 / 1.2544 = 8.53
then the Net Present Value (NPV) after tax in real terms (net with 10%) would be as follows:
NPV = - 14 + 8.72 / 1.10 + 8.53 / (1.10) raised to the 2 = - 14 + 7.93 + 7.04 = 0.97
As the NPV is positive and greater than zero: the project is aceptable.Aunque is in a dangerous limit .
Kurt Russelentrada Ilegal
Search DISCOUNT RATE
Yesterday a student asked me how one can estimate the discount rate called TIR. Well let's suppose we want to estimate the net present value (NPV) for an investment of 1,500 entries with cash flows as follows: the first year 500, in the second year 1,000, in the year 500 called Third and fourth year 1,000 . Clear that the NPV is zero is necessary to estimate a discount rate is called the internal rate of return (IRR).
-1,500 + 500 / (1 + r) + 1.000 / (1 + r) 2 + 500 / (1 + r) 3 + 1,000 / (1 + r) 4 =
zero (ie: investment or cash out by 1,500 and multiplied by cash receipts the discount rate "r" for years 1.2 3 and 4) but the "r" and not know that formula can not punt.
The only way to get it is by the following calculations. Sum first entries, ie: 500 + 1,000 + 500 + 1,000 = 3,000 . The other step is to do the following: 500 / 1 + 1,000 / 2 + 500 / 3 + 1,000 / 4 = 1416.66 , then the calculation would be another division of 3,000 / 1,500 but increased to 3,000 / 8,000, which as we know is just to say high to 0,375, and the result is subtracted from the unit, or 3,000 / 1500 = 2 and 2 raised to 0.375 is equal to 1.2968 for the remainder of the unit would: 0.2968 or 29.68% is the , the discount rate would be lower and thus older ecime: 3,000 / 1,500 which is 2, but risen to 1416.66 / 3.000 = 0.4722 and less than 1 = 2 raised to of 0.4722 = 1.3872 minus 1 = 38.72% .
The real discount rate should be between these values: 29.68% and 38.72%. Testing with different values \u200b\u200bbetween these extremes you get the discount rate equal to 31.96% . This rate is the one that makes the NPV is zero and is called the Internal Rate of Return (IRR). And we can also be obtained by interpolation. Let us now see the following:
discount rates of 32% discount per table
Year 1 0.757576 x 500 = 379
Year 2 0.573921 x 1000 = 574
Year 3 0.434789 x 500 = 217
Year 4 0.329385 x 1000 = 329
SUM + 1.499-1500 = - 1
the NPV is negative to a positive NPV should be discounted to 32% lower rates. Discounted at the rate of 30%.
Year 1 0.769231 x 500 = 385
Year 2 0.591716 x 1000 = 592
Year 3 0.455166 x 500 = 228
Year 5 0.350128 x 1000 = 350
SUM + 1555-1500 = + 55
Now we have a positive NPV NPV
When we cast the value ZERO, then the result is the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) and can be obtained by linear interpolation and :
IRR = 30 + (32 - 30) [55/55 + 1)
IRR = 30 + (2) (0.9821) TIR = 30 +1,9642
IRR = 31.96
If cash flow is discounted at the rate of 31.96 the result of the NPV will be zero.
Yesterday a student asked me how one can estimate the discount rate called TIR. Well let's suppose we want to estimate the net present value (NPV) for an investment of 1,500 entries with cash flows as follows: the first year 500, in the second year 1,000, in the year 500 called Third and fourth year 1,000 . Clear that the NPV is zero is necessary to estimate a discount rate is called the internal rate of return (IRR).
-1,500 + 500 / (1 + r) + 1.000 / (1 + r) 2 + 500 / (1 + r) 3 + 1,000 / (1 + r) 4 =
zero (ie: investment or cash out by 1,500 and multiplied by cash receipts the discount rate "r" for years 1.2 3 and 4) but the "r" and not know that formula can not punt.
The only way to get it is by the following calculations. Sum first entries, ie: 500 + 1,000 + 500 + 1,000 = 3,000 . The other step is to do the following: 500 / 1 + 1,000 / 2 + 500 / 3 + 1,000 / 4 = 1416.66 , then the calculation would be another division of 3,000 / 1,500 but increased to 3,000 / 8,000, which as we know is just to say high to 0,375, and the result is subtracted from the unit, or 3,000 / 1500 = 2 and 2 raised to 0.375 is equal to 1.2968 for the remainder of the unit would: 0.2968 or 29.68% is the , the discount rate would be lower and thus older ecime: 3,000 / 1,500 which is 2, but risen to 1416.66 / 3.000 = 0.4722 and less than 1 = 2 raised to of 0.4722 = 1.3872 minus 1 = 38.72% .
The real discount rate should be between these values: 29.68% and 38.72%. Testing with different values \u200b\u200bbetween these extremes you get the discount rate equal to 31.96% . This rate is the one that makes the NPV is zero and is called the Internal Rate of Return (IRR). And we can also be obtained by interpolation. Let us now see the following:
discount rates of 32% discount per table
Year 1 0.757576 x 500 = 379
Year 2 0.573921 x 1000 = 574
Year 3 0.434789 x 500 = 217
Year 4 0.329385 x 1000 = 329
SUM + 1.499-1500 = - 1
the NPV is negative to a positive NPV should be discounted to 32% lower rates. Discounted at the rate of 30%.
Year 1 0.769231 x 500 = 385
Year 2 0.591716 x 1000 = 592
Year 3 0.455166 x 500 = 228
Year 5 0.350128 x 1000 = 350
SUM + 1555-1500 = + 55
Now we have a positive NPV NPV
When we cast the value ZERO, then the result is the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) and can be obtained by linear interpolation and :
IRR = 30 + (32 - 30) [55/55 + 1)
IRR = 30 + (2) (0.9821) TIR = 30 +1,9642
IRR = 31.96
If cash flow is discounted at the rate of 31.96 the result of the NPV will be zero.
Friday, March 25, 2011
Wednesday, March 23, 2011
Saturday, March 19, 2011
How To Make A Deed Of Variation
A sample of an infinite population
first thing to know that a 390-room hotel has 390 berths (assuming one double bed) and that if you work at 85% capacity ( is very high indeed), then sell year: 390 x 365 x 0.85 = 120,998 room nights a year . Assuming an average of 1.8 persons per room, then in a year that hotel would capture 120,998 x 1.8 = 217,796 customers . And another hotel would follow the same calculation: 311 x 0.85 x 365 = 96,488 rooms sold each year and multiplied by 1, 8 would 173,678 customers a year.
Now the question is to know what would be the representative sample of the total population of customers: 217,796 + 173,878 = 391,674 tourists to survey.
As we are dealing with clients who are housed in a hotel, chances are that 65% of visitors staying at hotels and 35% of customers buy other accommodations, and now applying the formula for infinite population , where 6% (0, 06) is the standard error and confidence level of 90% (with Z = 1.64), we have:
n = [square 1.64 x (0.65) (0.35)] / 0, 06 squared, n = [2.6896 x 0.2275] / 0.0036
n = 170 tourists surveyed.
first thing to know that a 390-room hotel has 390 berths (assuming one double bed) and that if you work at 85% capacity ( is very high indeed), then sell year: 390 x 365 x 0.85 = 120,998 room nights a year . Assuming an average of 1.8 persons per room, then in a year that hotel would capture 120,998 x 1.8 = 217,796 customers . And another hotel would follow the same calculation: 311 x 0.85 x 365 = 96,488 rooms sold each year and multiplied by 1, 8 would 173,678 customers a year.
Now the question is to know what would be the representative sample of the total population of customers: 217,796 + 173,878 = 391,674 tourists to survey.
As we are dealing with clients who are housed in a hotel, chances are that 65% of visitors staying at hotels and 35% of customers buy other accommodations, and now applying the formula for infinite population , where 6% (0, 06) is the standard error and confidence level of 90% (with Z = 1.64), we have:
n = [square 1.64 x (0.65) (0.35)] / 0, 06 squared, n = [2.6896 x 0.2275] / 0.0036
n = 170 tourists surveyed.
Thursday, March 17, 2011
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